Democracy for Utah - Voting and Elections

10 reasons why you should ignore exit polls

Tue, 04 Nov 2008 10:54:40 -0700

From Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com:

Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50–90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys. [...]

Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats' supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.

Voting resources and links

Tue, 04 Nov 2008 10:33:43 -0700

Find your polling location
Report a problem at the polls: call Election Protection at 1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687-8683)
State election results
National election results:
- Daily Kos (click the button for Electoral Vote)
- CNN
- electoral-vote.com

Howard Dean will get the last laugh

Tue, 04 Nov 2008 10:27:03 -0700

The Hill:

Dean paid for national-party staff in all 50 states and developed a single voter database for every Democratic candidate to use in 47 states.

Democratic Party officials are convinced this enabled Obama to build a strong grassroots operation in Republican strongholds, such as Idaho, Nebraska and North Dakota, that pushed him to victory over Clinton in the primary.

The database also helped Obama assemble an unprecedented field operation in other conservative-leaning states such as North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri, throwing McCain on the defensive. [...]

A DNC official said it would have been difficult for Obama to effectively move his legion of young campaign workers from state to state if they had to wrestle with the quirks of a different voter file in each state.

"He wouldn't have been able to build the huge grassroots operation that he did," the official said.

A fun article, despite its claim that Dean "bowed out" of the 2004 race in his Iowa speech. Is it too much to ask that a political newspaper get political facts straight?

The Republican voter fraud hoax

Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:24:52 -0600

Brad Friedman of BradBlog, writing in the Guardian:

Here are the facts. Acorn verifies the legitimacy of every registration its canvassers collect. If they can't authenticate the registration, or it's incomplete or questionable in other ways, they flag that form as problematic ("fraudulent", "incomplete", et cetera). They then hand in all registration forms, even the problematic ones, to elections officials, as they are required to do by law. In almost every case where you've heard about fraud by Acorn, it's because Acorn itself notified officials about the fraud that's been perpetrated on them by rogue canvassers. Most officials who run to the media screaming "Acorn is committing fraud" know all of the above but don't bother to share those facts with the media they've run to. None of this is about voter fraud. None of it. Where any fraud has occurred, it's voter registration fraud and has resulted in exactly zero fraudulent votes.

You'll hear that Donald Duck, Mary Poppins, Dick Tracy, Mickey Mouse and (new this year) the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys football team have all had fraudulent registrations submitted in their names. That's true. And we know this, why? Because Acorn told officials about it when they followed the law and turned in those registrations, flagged as fraudulent.

What you won't hear is that federal law requires anybody who does not register to vote in person at the county office to show an ID when they go to vote the first time. So, unless Donald Duck shows up with his ID, he won't be voting this November. You needn't worry, no matter how much even John McCain himself cynically and dishonourably tries to mislead you.

Denver by Starlight..and Fireworks

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 14:13:52 -0600

Speaking of Denver...John Lee asked me last night "Did you cry?"

Yup, I did. And I think there were lots of other peoople in the stadium cried, as well. There were 80,000 of us. Someone had to cry!

Here are the two main feelings that I brought back from the DNC Convention-
The bridges between the racial divide were made stronger.
I looked around the audience full of people cheering, crying, hugging and saying "Amen!"

Are you registered to vote by mail?

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 11:40:36 -0600

From the Salt Lake County Democrats:

Avoid the lines, any weather we may get, and make sure you vote by signing up to have your ballot mailed to you for FREE! Vote in the comfort of your own home and don't worry about it again. All you have to do is send this form to the County Clerk's office as soon as you can.

Also, if you know anyone who is a voter who sometimes forgets, or sometimes gets too busy — but would vote Democrat if they did — pass this along to them. Make sure they sign up for this program. Their life will be made easier if they do.

The County Party is expending a lot of resources to get people to vote this year. If we can get a large number of people to vote early, that is money saved!

If you live outside Salt Lake County, you can use the Utah form from elections.utah.gov to register to vote by mail.

Key State Senate Races

Sun, 10 Aug 2008 19:01:45 -0600

Depending on the source/study, 3-10% of adults contribute to political campaigns, and the average contributor contributes less than .5% of his/her annual income to political campaigns.

In Utah in 2006, 100% of the State Senate races went to the candidate with the most money. Over the past several elections, about 75% of the State House races went to the candidate with the most money.

Win or lose, a well-funded campaign contributes to the long term health of the party. It educates candidates and identifies and develops resources, such as new candidates, donors, volunteers, etc.

DNC kicks off 50-state voter registration "drive"

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 13:47:49 -0600

DNC.org:

Governor Howard Dean will lead a national grassroots voter registration effort. The cross-country bus tour, "Register for Change," will build on the overwhelming enthusiasm and voter turnout seen during the primaries as Democrats mobilize and organize voters for the fall election.

The tour kicks off with events in Crawford and Austin, TX, on Thursday, July 17th. Dean will also deliver the Opening Keynote Speech at Netroots Nation 2008 in Austin, TX. On Friday, July 18th, and Saturday, July 19th, the tour will continue with events in Hattiesburg and Jackson, Mississippi, and New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

So when's the bus coming to Utah?

Republicans have messed up the 2010 census too

Mon, 23 Jun 2008 12:39:03 -0600

NYTimes:

Preparations for the 2010 census are a shambles.

Committees in the House have been holding hearings to vet the problems and monitor progress. But with each hearing, it becomes more obvious that prospects for a robust census are unlikely to improve considerably unless and until the next president brings in new leaders. They are needed at the Commerce Department, which includes the Census Bureau, and at the bureau itself, which — like so many federal agencies — has been mismanaged and demoralized during the Bush years. [...]

The quality of the nation's democracy depends on the census, because the numbers are used to decide the number of Congressional seats from each state and hence the number of votes each state has in the Electoral College. It's hard to ignore the impression of partisan motives in policies that hobble the census, because an inaccurate census invariably undercounts out-of-the-mainstream groups not typically aligned with Republicans.

Most votes in the Pennsylvania primary are unverifiable

Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:15:24 -0600

On Monday might, The Brad Blog reminded us that most of the votes in the Pennsylvania primary would be unverifiable:

On Tuesday night, you will be told who the winner of the Pennsylvania primary is. You will accept it. You will have no choice. No matter who the winner really is. Or isn't.

This Tuesday's crucial contest will be primarily run on 100% faith-based, Direct Recording Electronic (DRE, usually touch-screen or push-button) e-voting machines across the state. There will be no way to determine after the election whether the computers have accurately recorded, or not, the intent of those voters who voted on them. As VerifiedVoting.org summarizes the crucial contest, it "will be essentially unrecountable, unverifiable, and unauditable."

Most of the votes, more than 85%, will be cast on such DRE systems which do not provide so-called "Voter Verified Paper Audit Trails" (VVPATs), as their use has been found unconstitutional in the state, since its been determined, accurately, that ballot secrecy cannot be guaranteed when using such paper trail systems. Not that it matters.

With or without a so-called "paper trail" printer, all touch-screen/push-button/DRE voting machines are equally unverifiable and antithetical to American democracy. Period.

California official sues voting machine maker for $15 million

Tue, 20 Nov 2007 09:49:53 -0700

San Francisco Chronicle:

California Secretary of State Debra Bowen sued a Nebraska voting machine company on Monday, seeking fines and reimbursements of nearly $15 million from the firm for allegedly selling nearly 1,000 uncertified machines to San Francisco and four other counties.

San Francisco's 558 AutoMARK ballot-marking devices were among 972 of the machines that Election Systems & Software sold in California last year without putting them through the state testing process. [...]

"ES&S ignored the law over and over and over again, and it got caught," Bowen said in a statement after filing suit against the company. "I am not going to stand on the sidelines and watch a voting system vendor come into the state, ignore the laws and make millions of dollars from California's taxpayers in the process."

SLC Council in sticker shock over election costs

Thu, 12 Jul 2007 22:07:31 -0600

OK, folks, the numbers are coming in and the carefully concealed extra costs of the electronic voting machines are coming home to roost — twice this year and again in 2008. Julie Rose, KCPW, reports the SLC Council is experiencing sticker shock:

The Salt Lake City Council is ready to bite the bullet and pay three times more for its municipal election than it has in previous years. The extra costs are mainly because the new electronic voting machines require more training for poll workers at higher wages. The machines are also in short supply, which could mean fewer polling locations, which troubles City Councilman Dave Buhler:

"I worry about what that does for voter involvement and participation — particularly for some of our older voters who may have a harder time getting out if the location is further away," says Buhler.

The men to call to account are Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert and his Deputy Chief of Staff Michael Cragun. The latter misled the SL County Council by saying The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) required a total conversion to the electronic voting machines (DREs). In fact HAVA only required one such machine at each polling place to accomodate voters with vision or hearing impairment. BTW, the DREs do nothing to accomodate voters who cannot enter polling places.

Mayoral Responses to D4U Questionnaires

Mon, 11 Jun 2007 09:13:59 -0600

Update from Carrie: See Sheryl's blog for the mayoral responses.

I will be posting the responses to the mayoral questionnaires in the next few days.

All VOTING MEMBERS OF D4U are asked to vote on their choice of the candidate D4U will endorse.

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT! I would like to get an endorsement out by July so that the candidate can use our endorsement in their public information.

Otherwise our endorsement will have no effect or importance to the candidates.

The election is on September 11. Thus if we wait until August, it will be too late for them.

I know we are focusing on the D4A training right now, but lets get our local issues addressed as well.

Sheryl

D4U member gets letter printed in Deseret News on electronic voting machines

Thu, 31 May 2007 14:50:57 -0600

D4U member (and Democracy for Utah website administrator) Ryan Stokes got his letter published in the Deseret News today:

Vote 'no' on machines

I read your editorial (May 24) about people who want paper ballots to record votes, with probably the same sense of self-assuredness you must have felt writing it. I also feel that only ignorance or fear could produce an opinion contrary to mine on the matter of verified voting.

So to address your stated fears, I want to assure you that those opposed to this misuse of technology need not be uncomfortable with advances in technology, nervous Nellies, afraid of gremlins, older than 40, fuddy-duddies or Luddites.

The mark of education and understanding is turning the unknown into the known. Simple simulations have already shown that the voting machines we used in Utah can simply start out with more votes for one candidate than the other.

And you would demand I give my faith freely to my elected officials; I cannot have faith in elections that can start in favor of one candidate, or in which votes are discarded or invented. As far as I can see, humans are not outdated technology.

Ryan Stokes
Holladay

Ryan's letter was in response to the D-News' name-calling editorial from last Thurdsay. The full text of Ryan's letter is available below.

Deseret News: Those who want paper ballots are 'fuddy duddies,' 'Luddites'

Wed, 30 May 2007 10:04:32 -0600

An unusually bilious screed in the Deseret News — did someone let Joe Cannon write this editorial?

Right now, some people are worried there are gremlins in the current voting machines — that electronic voting is unreliable and open to tampering. They spout anecdotal evidence of irregularities here and there to fuel their fear and want paper ballot backups to fend off any conspirators. It's the same kind of itchy-witchy thinking that leads people to hide bags of money under their mattresses.

And dare we say that almost all of those those skittish souls are likely older than 40? The younger generation sees the outcry for the tangible comfort of paper ballots as a hallmark of the fuddy-duddy. The notion sounds, to young ears, like people demanding election results be chiseled into granite for security. [...]

Utahns do not have the time, money or obligation to create a "security blanket" of paper ballots for Luddites to wrap around themselves in the night.

Did you get the message? If you think electronic voting isn't secure, you're a superstitious throwback to the 16th century who's afraid of technology.

You can respond to this "argument" at letters@desnews.com.